Managers’ short-term forecast: Activity rise expected in construction and retail over June - August

Romanian managers expect an increase in construction and retail activity over June - August, they see the number of employees in these sectors growing moderately, and retail prices following an upward trend, reveals data released on Monday by the National Institute of Statistics (INS).

According to the business survey conducted this June, managers in the manufacturing industry expect a moderate increase in the output volume in the next three months (short-term balance +9 pct), with the manufacturing of coke and petroleum products expected to see the highest increase (short-term balance +86 pct), followed by beverage manufacturing (short-term balance +53 pct).

As concerns the number of employees in the manufacturing industry overall, the managers project a moderate decrease - with a short-term balance of -15 pct. Industrial product prices will keep relatively stable in the next three months (short-term balance +4 pct).

According to the June 2020 estimates, the construction volume is expected to grow in the next three months (short-term balance +28 pct). Managers also estimate a moderate increase in the number of employees (short-term balance +13 pct). Prices of construction works are seen advancing moderately (short-term balance +10 pct).

In the retail sector, the managers' estimations indicate an upward trend of activity in the next three months (short-term balance +18 pct). The volume of orders to the suppliers of goods will see a moderate increase (short-term balance +6 pct). The number of employees is seen growing moderately (short-term balance +10 pct). For the next period, the managers of trading companies estimate an increase in retail prices (short-term balance +23 pct).

According to the June 2020 survey, the demand for services (turnover) will keep relatively stable in the next three months (short-term balance + 3 pct). The number of employees in the service sector is seen going down moderately (short-term balance -6 pct), while service selling or invoicing prices will tend to decrease (short-term balance -16 pct).

The INS mentions that the short-term balance indicates the perception of business managers on the dynamics of a phenomenon that should not be mistaken for the rate of increase or decrease of any statistical indicator produced by the statistics authority. The short-term percentage balance is determined as the difference between the percentage of managers who chose the positive version of the phenomenon and the percentage of those who indicated the negative version.